OPTIONS INTELLIGENCE

POWERPLAYER

Jack Gee @1Powerplayer. Live fills and defined-risk ideas. Not a broker. Not advice.

Never sell naked. No margin.

I BELIEVE IN

“Knowing the company, studying sentiment, and moving with the market.”

PIN ACTION

Plan updated Oct 10, 2026 · 9:51 PM PT

$INTC is the trade. $ASML and $TSM report first. That is the pin action.

What I'm doing

I own Intel stock and call options (bets that the price goes up) going into Intel's earnings report on Oct 29. I also own $95 put options (bets that the price goes down). They work like insurance, so a big drop after earnings doesn't wipe out the whole position.

Why ASML and TSMC matter first

Two big chip companies report before Intel. $ASML reports Oct 14 and $TSM (TSMC) reports Oct 15.

ASML makes the machines Intel needs to build its next generation of chips (called 14A). Their report tells us if those machines are on schedule.
TSMC is Intel's biggest competitor in making chips for other companies. If TSMC is fully booked, customers need another option, and that's Intel's opportunity.

Together, they give an early read on Intel's chip-making business, including its role in Terafab, the chip factory Elon Musk is building.

How the charts look

TSMC looks strong. It hit a record of about $486 on Oct 5, and the trend is still up.
ASML looks steady. It's up for the month but about 10% below its high, moving mostly sideways.

Where Intel stands

Intel fell about 12% this week, along with most chip stocks. There was no bad news from Intel itself, so I still believe in the trade.
$105 is where buyers stepped in this week, and the stock is sitting right there now. That's my first support level.
Between $105 and $110, very few shares have traded, so the price can move through that range quickly.
At $112 to $114, a lot of people bought recently and are now losing money. Many will sell to break even if the price gets back there, so it's harder to get past.
If Intel pushes through $114 and stays there, the next target is about $120.

What could go wrong

The biggest risk is that Intel announces more spending without naming new customers for its chip factories. If they do name customers, that's a big positive. Options trading in Intel has been very active heading into earnings, so a lot of traders are betting on a big move.

My trade. Not advice.

$INTCOct 29

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$ASMLOct 14

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$TSMOct 15

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Delayed daily closes, three months.

Why $ASML and $TSM first

$INTC here is a foundry bet. Can Intel make chips for other companies, not just itself. That needs the machines, and customers who need the space. $ASML and $TSM report two weeks earlier and tell me both.

$ASML, Oct 14, is the only maker of EUV tools. Intel’s 14A process depends on the new High-NA machines, and Intel is the lead customer. Shipping on time keeps 14A on track. Delays, weak orders, or export trouble hit the foundry story directly.

$TSM, Oct 15, is the competitor. If its advanced capacity is sold out, big customers need another shop, and that is Intel’s pitch. $TSM is also tied to Terafab, where Intel is a partner. What $TSM says about Terafab can move $INTC the same day.

Strong reports usually lift the group and can confirm the foundry plan. Weak ones, or a bigger Terafab role for $TSM, can drag $INTC before it even speaks.

My trade. Not advice.

$INTC holding

Oct 9 close · $104.70

1,200 shares @ ~$104.81
Long 8 Oct 23 $115 calls @ ~$6.05
Long 30 Oct 30 $100 calls @ ~$15.99
Long 10 Oct 30 $115 calls @ $7.30
Long 25 Nov 20 $110 calls / short 25 Nov 20 $125 calls @ ~$4.40 debit
Long 10 Oct 30 $95 puts @ $1.90

Targets: $120 first, $140 if the story builds

$120 is the realistic target on good news. Options are pricing about a $15 move for Oct 29. From $105, a strong report alone gets $INTC near $120. Good $ASML and $TSM reports before that could help it along. Expect some selling between $112.50 and $117, where recent buyers are underwater.

$140 is the bigger picture, not a one-day move. That's about +33%, more than twice the expected move. $INTC has been there before (June high of $142). Getting back would take several catalysts over a few weeks: named 14A foundry customers, Terafab locked in, and chip stocks back in favor.

How the book is built for that:

Short-dated calls (Oct 23, Oct 30) are for the earnings pop. I trim or cut them into strength around $112–114 before the print, and $115–120 after it. I don't hold them for $140.
Nov 20 call spreads and the stock are for the ride. They have time to work if the story keeps building into November.
The puts stay on in case the story breaks instead.

My trade. Not advice.

If it works, and if it doesn’t

If $INTC is $120 after the Oct 29 print, the book is roughly +$32,000 (current book, before Oct 12 adds). The stock and the calls do the work. The insurance costs about $4,750, and I lose that on purpose if it goes well. That is about 15% of the gain.

If it drops, the stock and the calls lose fast. Near this price, every $1 costs the book about $2,000 to $2,500. Below $95 the puts start paying and slow it down. The deeper it falls, the more they cover.

The worst case is not a crash. It is a slow drift between $100 and $108, where the calls bleed and the puts never pay.

The rule: spend about 5–10% of a pop to cover a gap down. Trim into strength around $112–114 before the print, and $115–120 after it.

My trade. Not advice.

New additions: Monday and Tuesday (Oct 12–13)

What I add depends on where Intel opens Monday. Everything goes in Monday or Tuesday, before $ASML and $TSM report. Both release their results overnight, before the US market opens. After that, I'm not chasing.

If $INTC pops toward $108–112: buy protection

Add 10 Nov 20 $105/$95 put spreads. They cover the gap right under today's price.
Add 12 Nov 20 $95/$85 put spreads, the core hedge.
No new calls on a pop.

If $INTC dips toward $103–105: buy upside

Add 10 Nov 20 $105/$120 call spreads. Buy the $105 calls, sell the $120 calls. They start paying near today's price, max out at the $120 target, and give three weeks past earnings.
Add longer-dated in-the-money Jan 2027 calls, around the $90 or $95 strike, for the longer run toward $140.
Add the 12 Nov 20 $95/$85 core hedge.

If $INTC is flat around $105

Get the core hedge, then wait for a better entry on the rest by Tuesday.

Core hedge: 12 Nov 20 $95/$85 put spreads

Buy 12 Nov 20 $95 puts, sell 12 Nov 20 $85 puts
Debit about $2.43, roughly $2,900 for the 12 (Oct 9 prices)
Worth up to $12,000 if $INTC is $85 or lower on Nov 20
Loses the $2,900 if $INTC is still $95 or higher that day
Breakeven $92.57

Why these puts

Each put covers a different part of the drop, and together they stack.

Oct 30 $95 puts, already owned: crash insurance through earnings. They pay below $95 but expire Oct 30.
Nov 20 $95/$85: the same crash zone, but they last until Nov 20 to match the November call spreads. They're cheap because they only pay on a big drop.
Nov 20 $105/$95, on a pop: covers $105 down to $95, the most likely bad-earnings range. Nothing else in the book covers it. They cost more, so they get bought when a pop makes puts cheaper.

Together that's protection from $105 down to $85 through Nov 20. Spreads instead of plain puts keep the cost low, so a pop doesn't eat much of the gain.

Most of the call money expires Oct 30 or earlier. If the stock drifts sideways, those calls lose value every day. The November spreads and January 2027 calls give the trade time to work.

My trade. Not advice.

Exit

I don’t have to wait for the $INTC print. $ASML and $TSM are the early warning.

Bad news from either one, tool delays, weak orders, export trouble, or a bigger $TSM role in Terafab: sell the calls and let the puts run. Short-dated calls go first, the Oct 23 and Oct 30. The puts keep working as it falls. Then decide on the stock by level: hold if buyers defend $100–102, trim if it breaks under $100.
Good news: hold it and let it run into the print. Trim into strength around $112–114 before the print, and $115–120 after it.
No clear signal: stay with the plan, keep the insurance on, and look again before Oct 29.

Getting out early on bad news costs less than sitting through a bad earnings gap.

My trade. Not advice.

Recommended allocation

Core stocks65%
Long-dated options10%
Cash / short-term Treasuries20%
Tactical hedge budget5%

Five percent is the usual hedge, not a ceiling. I will add to it daily or weekly when the tape calls for it, and that slice can run past 5%. We stay invested either way.

The greater the upside, the greater the risk.

The strategy with the greatest upside isn't necessarily the safest. For capital preservation, unleveraged stock ownership combined with diversification and cash reserves is generally safer than buying calls, even deep-in-the-money calls.

Desk coming soon

@1Powerplayer