OPTIONS INTELLIGENCE
POWERPLAYER
Jack Gee @1Powerplayer. Live fills and defined-risk ideas. Not a broker. Not advice.
Never sell naked. No margin.
I BELIEVE IN
“Knowing the company, studying sentiment, and moving with the market.”
Tap a chart. Premarket and after hours show when the market is closed.
PIN ACTION
Plan updated Oct 12, 2026.
$INTC is the trade. $ASML and $TSM report first. That is the pin action.
How I trade this
My position isn't set in stone. I dance with the market.
The dates and prices on this page are the starting plan, not a promise. Short expiration dates mean nothing to me. I'm not waiting around for them. The market decides my next dance move. If $INTC pops, I may take profits on some calls or add puts. If it drops, I may average down, buy more time, or cut what isn't working. I buy and sell one piece at a time as the market moves.
The win and lose levels below show where the trade stands if I did nothing. I almost never do nothing. The goal is to take wins when they show up and keep losses small, not to wait for an expiration date.
My trade. Not advice.
Win or lose
October: the earnings pop. Ends Oct 30
Jack Gee wins if
$INTC climbs above about $116 by Oct 30. That's where the whole position turns green, and green means I take the win and get out. Strong $ASML and $TSM reports and new Intel foundry customers are what get it there.
Jack Gee loses if
$INTC stays under $116 through Oct 30. That's when the October calls expire, and that's where most of the money is. A crash under $95 is covered by the Nov 20 $95/$85 put spreads I'm adding Monday.
November: the longer ride. Ends Nov 20
Jack Gee wins if
$INTC is above about $114 on Nov 20. The Nov $110/$125 call spreads start paying there and max out at $125. If the story keeps building after earnings, this is my second chance, even if October misses.
Jack Gee loses if
$INTC is under $110 on Nov 20. The November call spreads expire worthless. If it falls under about $92.50, the Nov $95/$85 put spreads pay, up to $85.
The worst case for both
A slow drift between $100 and $110. The calls lose value, and the puts never pay. That's why I cut early on bad news instead of waiting.
My trade. Not advice.
If $ASML and $TSM report good news and go up, $INTC goes up. If they go down, $INTC goes down.
What I'm doing
I own Intel stock and call options (bets that the price goes up) going into Intel's earnings report on Oct 29. I sold my $95 put options (bets that the price goes down) for a profit after they doubled. New protection goes on Monday, so a big drop doesn't wipe out the whole position.
Why $ASML and $TSM matter first
Two big chip companies report before Intel. $ASML reports Oct 14 and $TSM reports Oct 15.
- $ASML makes the machines Intel needs to build its next generation of chips (called 14A). Their report tells us if those machines are on schedule.
- $TSM is Intel's biggest competitor in making chips for other companies. If $TSM is fully booked, customers need another option, and that's Intel's opportunity.
Together, they give an early read on Intel's chip-making business, including its role in Terafab, the chip factory Elon Musk is building.
How the charts look
- $TSM looks strong. It hit a record of about $486 on Oct 5, and the trend is still up.
- $ASML looks steady. It's up for the month but about 10% below its high, moving mostly sideways.
Where Intel stands
- Intel fell about 12% this week, along with most chip stocks. There was no bad news from Intel itself, so I still believe in the trade.
- $105 is where buyers stepped in this week, and the stock is sitting right there now. That's my first support level.
- Between $105 and $110, very few shares have traded, so the price can move through that range quickly.
- $112 to $114 is where recent buyers are losing money and may sell. More selling is likely up to about $117.
- If Intel pushes through $114 and stays there, the next target is about $120.
What could go wrong
The biggest risk is that Intel announces more spending without naming new customers for its chip factories. If they do name customers, that's a big positive. Options trading in Intel has been very active heading into earnings, so a lot of traders are betting on a big move.
My trade. Not advice.
Why $ASML and $TSM first
$INTC here is a foundry bet. Can Intel make chips for other companies, not just itself? That needs the machines, and customers who need the space. $ASML and $TSM report two weeks earlier and tell me both.
$ASML, Oct 14, is the only maker of EUV tools. Intel’s 14A process depends on the new High-NA machines, and Intel is the lead customer. Shipping on time keeps 14A on track. Delays, weak orders, or export trouble hit the foundry story directly.
$TSM, Oct 15, is the competitor. If its advanced capacity is sold out, big customers need another shop, and that is Intel’s pitch. $TSM is also tied to Terafab, where Intel is a partner. What $TSM says about Terafab can move $INTC the same day.
Strong reports usually lift the group and can confirm the foundry plan. Weak ones, or a bigger Terafab role for $TSM, can drag $INTC before it even speaks.
My trade. Not advice.
$INTC holding
Oct 9 close · $104.70
- 1,200 shares @ ~$105.33
- Long 10 Nov 20 $97.50 calls
- Long 20 Oct 14 $105 calls
- Long 8 Oct 23 $115 calls
- Long 10 Oct 30 $100 calls
- Long 10 Oct 30 $115 calls
- Long 25 Nov 20 $110 calls / short 25 Nov 20 $125 calls
- No puts right now. I sold my Oct 30 $95 puts after they doubled. New protection goes on Monday (see Monday's plan).
Targets: $120 first, $140 if the story builds
$120 is the realistic target on good news. Options are pricing about a $15 move for Oct 29. From $105, a strong report alone gets $INTC near $120. Good $ASML and $TSM reports before that could help it along. $112 to $114 is where recent buyers are losing money and may sell. More selling is likely up to about $117.
$140 is the bigger picture, not a one-day move. That's about +33%, more than twice the expected move for earnings. $INTC has been there before (June high of $142). Getting back would take several good news events over a few weeks: named 14A foundry customers, Terafab locked in, and chip stocks back in favor.
How the book is built for that:
- Oct 14 and Oct 23 calls are for the run-up into the $ASML and $TSM reports on Oct 14 and 15. That's the pin action. If good news hits early and $INTC jumps, I take the profit and close them. They expire before Intel reports, so I don't hold them.
- Oct 30 calls are for Intel's own earnings on Oct 29. I hold them through the report and trim into strength around $115–120 after it. I don't hold them for $140.
- Nov 20 $97.50 calls give the trade more time and keep working past earnings.
- Nov 20 call spreads and the stock are for the longer ride. They have time to work if the story keeps building into November.
- The puts stay on in case the story breaks instead.
My trade. Not advice.
If it works, and if it doesn’t
If $INTC is $120 after the Oct 29 print, the book is roughly +$20,000. The stock and the calls do the work. The insurance, the Nov 20 $95/$85 put spreads I'm adding Monday, costs about $2,900, and I lose that on purpose if it goes well.
If it drops, the stock and the calls lose fast. Near this price, every $1 costs the book about $4,000. Below about $92.50 the put spreads start paying and slow it down.
The worst case is not a crash. It is a slow drift between $100 and $108, where the calls bleed and the puts never pay.
The rule: spend about 5–10% of a pop to cover a gap down. Trim into strength around $112–114 before the print, and $115–120 after it.
My trade. Not advice.
Monday's plan
What I do depends on where $INTC opens. Everything goes in Monday or Tuesday, before $ASML and $TSM report. Both release their results overnight, before the US market opens. After that, I'm not chasing.
If $INTC pops toward $108–112
- Take some profit on the October calls and move that money into November, so less of my trade ends Oct 30.
- Add 10 Nov 20 $105/$95 put spreads to protect the gap under today's price.
- Sell 12 Nov 20 $120 covered calls on my 1,200 shares. On Oct 9 prices, that's about $4,900 in cash today. If $INTC goes above $120, my shares sell at my target, and my call options keep making money above it.
If $INTC dips toward $103–105
- Add 10 Nov 20 $105/$120 call spreads.
- Add longer-dated Jan 2027 calls, around the $90 or $95 strike, for the run toward $140.
- No covered calls on a dip. I don't want to cap the bounce.
Every case
- Add the core hedge: 12 Nov 20 $95/$85 put spreads.
If it's flat around $105, I get the core hedge first, then wait for a better entry on the rest by Tuesday.
My trade. Not advice.
Core hedge: 12 Nov 20 $95/$85 put spreads
- Buy 12 Nov 20 $95 puts, sell 12 Nov 20 $85 puts
- Debit about $2.43, roughly $2,900 for the 12 (Oct 9 prices)
- Worth up to $12,000 if $INTC is $85 or lower on Nov 20
- Loses the $2,900 if $INTC is still $95 or higher that day
- Breakeven $92.57
Why these puts
Each put covers a different part of the drop, and together they stack.
- Oct 30 $95 puts: I owned these as crash insurance and sold them for a profit after they doubled. The Nov 20 put spreads replace them.
- Nov 20 $95/$85: the same crash zone, but they last until Nov 20 to match the November call spreads. They're cheap because they only pay on a big drop.
- Nov 20 $105/$95, on a pop: covers $105 down to $95, the most likely bad-earnings range. Nothing else in the book covers it. They cost more, so they get bought when a pop makes puts cheaper.
Together that's protection from $105 down to $85 through Nov 20. Spreads instead of plain puts keep the cost low, so a pop doesn't eat much of the gain.
Most of the call money expires Oct 30 or earlier. If the stock drifts sideways, those calls lose value every day. The November spreads and January 2027 calls give the trade time to work.
My trade. Not advice.
Exit
I don’t have to wait for the $INTC print. $ASML and $TSM are the early warning.
- Bad news from either one, tool delays, weak orders, export trouble, or a bigger $TSM role in Terafab: sell the calls and let the puts run. Short-dated calls go first, the Oct 23 and Oct 30. The puts keep working as it falls. Then decide on the stock by level: hold if buyers defend $100–102, trim if it breaks under $100.
- Good news: hold it and let it run into the print. Trim into strength around $112–114 before the print, and $115–120 after it.
- No clear signal: stay with the plan, keep the insurance on, and look again before Oct 29.
Getting out early on bad news costs less than sitting through a bad earnings gap.
My trade. Not advice.
Cut the losses, let the puts pay
If things go wrong, I don't sit and hope. I cut what's losing and keep what's protecting me.
When I cut
- Bad news from $ASML or $TSM: delays, weak orders, export trouble, or a bigger $TSM role in Terafab.
- Or $INTC closes a day under $100.
What I do
- Sell the short-dated calls first, the Oct 23 and Oct 30. Selling early gets some money back. If I wait, they can expire worthless.
- Keep the puts. They go up as $INTC goes down. That's their job.
- Check the November call spreads. They have more time left, so I can hold them if I still believe in the story, or sell them to cut more risk.
- Decide on the stock by price. Hold if buyers defend $100–102. Trim if it breaks under $100.
Why: getting out early costs much less than sitting through a bad earnings drop.
My trade. Not advice.
New to $INTC? Ideas if you don't own anything yet
These are simple, defined-risk ideas. You can never lose more than you put in. Start small. Never risk money you can't afford to lose.
Before you start: a call option is a bet the price goes up. A put option is a bet the price goes down. A "spread" means you buy one option and sell another to lower the cost, which also caps how much you can make.
Bullish. You think Intel goes up
1. Buy the stock. Simplest
- Buy a small amount of $INTC shares near $105.
- What you can make: there is no cap. A share bought near $105 is up about $15 if Intel gets to $120, and about $35 if it gets to $140. You keep it as long as you hold the stock.
- Risk: the stock can fall, but there's no expiration date. You can hold through ups and downs.
- Best for: beginners and long-term believers in Intel's comeback.
2. Nov 20 $105/$120 call spread
- Buy the Nov 20 $105 call, sell the Nov 20 $120 call.
- Cost: roughly $6–7 per spread ($600–700). That's the most you can lose.
- Profit: about $800 to $900 per spread if Intel is at $120 or higher on Nov 20. The spread can be worth $1,500. You paid about $600 to $700, so the rest is the gain.
- Why: it lasts three weeks past the Oct 29 earnings, so you're not betting on one day.
Bearish. You think Intel goes down
3. Nov 20 $105/$95 put spread
- Buy the Nov 20 $105 put, sell the Nov 20 $95 put.
- Cost: roughly $4.40 per spread ($440). That's the most you can lose.
- Profit: about $560 per spread if Intel is at $95 or lower on Nov 20. The spread can be worth $1,000. You paid about $440, so the rest is the gain.
- Why: it pays if earnings disappoint, for example more spending with no new customers.
Not sure? Wait
Doing nothing is a real choice. $ASML reports Oct 14 and $TSM reports Oct 15. Their results can tell you a lot before Intel reports on Oct 29.
Rules I follow
- Never sell options naked, without owning the stock or the other leg.
- Never use margin.
- Size small. Options can go to zero.
Prices are estimates from the Oct 9 close and will change. Check live prices before you trade. This is not financial advice.
Recommended allocation
- Core stocks65%
- Long-dated options10%
- Cash / short-term Treasuries20%
- Tactical hedge budget5%
Five percent is the usual hedge, not a ceiling. I will add to it daily or weekly when the tape calls for it, and that slice can run past 5%. We stay invested either way.
The greater the upside, the greater the risk.
The strategy with the greatest upside isn't necessarily the safest. For capital preservation, unleveraged stock ownership combined with diversification and cash reserves is generally safer than buying calls, even deep-in-the-money calls.
Desk coming soon
Follow to be Followed